By now you've probably heard that Loretta Sanchez (CA-47) was a "yes" vote on the health care bill last night. She put out a statement last night explaining:

But it was hearing the personal stories from people in my district that ultimately convinced me to support this bill. In my fourteen years in Congress, I have never seen my constituents reach out so intently and so persistently in support of a particular piece of legislation.

Much of that "intent and persistent" outreach was mobilized late Saturday night and early Sunday morning, after reports circulated that Sanchez wasn't on Capitol Hill and was being listed by House leadership as a "no" vote. The Courage Campaign, where I work as Public Policy Director, asked her constituents to call her offices Sunday morning, an ask we later took statewide. OFA joined in, and even organized a protest at her Santa Ana campaign office pushing her to vote for the bill.

Reports indicated that about 250 people showed up to the office, including a number of folks who pulled over to join the protest after driving by it on Harbor Boulevard.

Clearly the statewide mobilization targeting Sanchez played a role in getting her to vote for the bill. What we don't know is just what her intentions were in all of this. Was Sanchez genuinely planning to vote no, or even undecided? Or was this an attention-seeking ploy on her part, as some have charged?

Whatever the answer, it's hard to avoid the conclusion that Sanchez has damaged herself with this whole affair. Her constituents will be happy she voted yes, but annoyed that there was any question about that outcome, and frustrated that Sanchez was playing coy with the media and the public up until the eve of the vote.

Maryland Democrat and DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen has argued Dems should go on the offensive, touting the bill and its benefits between now and the election. That's particularly good advice for Sanchez, whose district has a 31% uninsured rate, 17th highest in the country.

Whether a stunt or a genuine uncertainty about the vote, Loretta Sanchez damaged her standing in Orange County and among California Democrats. She did the right thing by voting "yes," but she'll need to work to restore that support between now and November.

Back in 1996, when I was still shedding my youthful Orange County conservatism, I walked a few precincts in Garden Grove and Anaheim for Loretta Sanchez. That fall, she won by about 900 votes, a big upset produced through her hard work and clear desire to represent her constituents and their needs.

Since then she's seen off several challengers, and won re-election by increasing margins. This year, however, she faces a strong Republican challenger in Assemblymember Van Tran. Tran has built an impressive electoral machine in west-central Orange County, and while most observers don't think he will win, Sanchez is certainly worried.

When facing such a challenger, you would think that one of the ways you'd defend yourself is to ensure your base is happy, and that you are doing all you can do to motivate your base and your constituents to vote for you. Particularly by addressing one of your constituents' primary needs, which is health care.

That's why it is simply baffling, even bizarre, to read this report from Roll Call (via David Dayen's FDL whip count):

As their whip efforts narrow to just a handful of Members, House Democratic leaders are facing an unlikely problem vote: Rep. Loretta Sanchez.

Sanchez was nowhere to be found on Saturday — she was in Florida on a fundraising jaunt, two Democratic sources said — and while leaders expected her to return for the Sunday vote on final passage, they weren’t assured. What’s more, leaders now list the Orange County Democrat as a “no” vote....

Sanchez this week told the Orange County Register that she needs to be satisfied that the health care overhaul is affordable. "The Senate bill is a bad bill," she told the paper.

The Courage Campaign is asking our members this morning to call Loretta Sanchez and ask her to vote "yes" on the bill. OFA is also organizing an 11AM rally at Loretta Sanchez's Santa Ana campaign office - click here for details.

Loretta Sanchez is apparently making the same mistake several other Democrats are poised to make, which is assuming that voting "no" on the health care bill is anything other than guaranteeing their own defeat in November.

Here's why. If Sanchez votes yes, then she gives her constituents and her base a good reason to care about her re-election. They'll be motivated to ensure that she sees off Van Tran, a right-winger in the classic Orange County tradition, to defend someone who made the right choice on health care. Tran would still present a challenge, but Sanchez would be able to mobilize an army of volunteers and donors to help defend against it.

But if Sanchez votes no, then she has nothing to fall back on. Her base would desert her. Volunteers would stay home, and small donors would find a more useful purpose for their money. Her pleas for support against Van Tran would fall on deaf ears. Her constituents would be forced to choose between two candidates who have shown no willingness to do anything for them on health care - one of whom had just betrayed them in Congress.

A "yes" vote gives Sanchez a fighting chance at victory. A "no" vote seals her doom.

I've always had a soft spot for Loretta Sanchez, stemming from that 1996 campaign. It pains me to see her throw 14 years of service down the drain like this. But if she votes "no," she's on her own, and nobody will save her from Van Tran and an Orange County Republican Party determined to avenge one of their most stinging and significant defeats they've ever suffered.

Cross posted from Calitics

That's right. Gary, Charlotte and I went for our first precinct walk this weekend together in Aliso Viejo, California. Oh man, not a good weekend to start, it was very hot and we waited until early evening to grab walking shoes and knock on doors in our very own neighborhood. Why not start where we live? Our community is in the heart of the 33rd State Senate district.

This will be our cheapest and best way to get the word out about Gary's campaign and for now we are knocking on all the doors. Republicans, Declined to States and Democrats. We've found Republicans to be very receptive to meeting the candidate, especially when it's quite doubtful that the Republican candidate will do any walking at all.

And this is the best lesson we learned, talking to people is the best way to get them to vote for you. And we even found some lovely Democratic neighbors who want to donate and volunteer. What more can a grassroots campaign ask for?   Read More »