New PPIC numbers out: May 19th special and marriage equality
| By Julia Rosen, Online Political Director - Mar 26th, 2009 at 9:01 am PDT |
| Also listed in: Courage Campaign Staff |
The PPIC is out with a new poll. They are a generally well regarding polling outfit here in CA. The top-lines that are getting all of the headlines are their numbers on the initiatives on the May 19th special election. Yes, folks, there is an election in a few weeks, due to the disaster that is our state budget.
According to the PPIC, all of the initiatives, which were placed on the ballot by the legislature are going down, except for the one that would eliminate pay raises for legislators when there is a budget deficit.
Here are the specific numbers via Dave at Calitics:
Anything under 55-60% at this point in the game before the campaigns heat up are in danger territory. Being below 50% is in seriously big trouble and likely to go down.
CTA just put $2 million into Prop 1B, but that may not be enough to save it, particularly because 1B has a poison pill. If Prop 1A does not pass, then Prop 1B is rendered meaningless. Prop 1A has a lot more opponents than any of the other initiatives from both side of the aisle.
It is hard to conceive at this point that Prop 1A passes, given that the biggest proponents are the legislature and the governor. Their terrible approval ratings do not make them good messengers. A lot depends on how the union endorsements shake out, since they bring both cash and good messengers: teachers, nurses, cops and firefighters anybody?
If these all fail then the budget deficit will swell again, but the question is are the solutions in the initiatives worse than original problem. There are no easy answers here.
These ballot numbers are getting the lion share of the attention, but the poll also includes new figures on marriage equality. Unfortunately, but unsurprisingly nothing much has changed.
49% are opposed to marriage equality, 44% are in favor. While the issue has been in the news due to the court case, legal arguing is unlikely to sway public opinions.
Only hard work contacting voters and a sustained campaign will change hearts and minds.
According to the PPIC, all of the initiatives, which were placed on the ballot by the legislature are going down, except for the one that would eliminate pay raises for legislators when there is a budget deficit.
Here are the specific numbers via Dave at Calitics:
Proposition 1A: About four in 10 support the measure (39% yes, 46% no, 15% undecided) to change the budget process by increasing the state "rainy day" fund. Less than half say the measure would be very (7%) or somewhat (38%) effective in helping California avoid future state budget deficits.
Proposition 1B: They are divided (44% yes, 41% no, 15% undecided) on the initiative that would require future supplemental payments to local school districts and community colleges to address recent budget cuts.
Proposition 1C: Half oppose (37% yes, 50% no, 11% undecided) the measure to modernize the lottery and allow for $5 billion in borrowing from future lottery profits to help balance next year's state budget.
Proposition 1D: Nearly half support (48% yes, 36% no, 16% undecided) the proposition to temporarily transfer funds from early childhood education to help balance the state budget.
Proposition 1E: Nearly half favor (47% yes, 37% no, 16% undecided) the measure to transfer money from mental health services to the general fund to help balance the state budget.
Proposition 1F: An overwhelming majority (81% yes, 13% no, 6% undecided) support the initiative that would block pay increases to state elected officials in years of budget deficit.
Anything under 55-60% at this point in the game before the campaigns heat up are in danger territory. Being below 50% is in seriously big trouble and likely to go down.
CTA just put $2 million into Prop 1B, but that may not be enough to save it, particularly because 1B has a poison pill. If Prop 1A does not pass, then Prop 1B is rendered meaningless. Prop 1A has a lot more opponents than any of the other initiatives from both side of the aisle.
It is hard to conceive at this point that Prop 1A passes, given that the biggest proponents are the legislature and the governor. Their terrible approval ratings do not make them good messengers. A lot depends on how the union endorsements shake out, since they bring both cash and good messengers: teachers, nurses, cops and firefighters anybody?
If these all fail then the budget deficit will swell again, but the question is are the solutions in the initiatives worse than original problem. There are no easy answers here.
These ballot numbers are getting the lion share of the attention, but the poll also includes new figures on marriage equality. Unfortunately, but unsurprisingly nothing much has changed.
49% are opposed to marriage equality, 44% are in favor. While the issue has been in the news due to the court case, legal arguing is unlikely to sway public opinions.
Only hard work contacting voters and a sustained campaign will change hearts and minds.
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We've seen this all before. Remember Arnold's 2004 deal -- "Issue $15 billion of bonds to pay state OPERATING costs (to temporarily balance the budget), and the measure will include a mandated balanced budget." Indeed, Prop 58 was actually called the "Balanced Budget Act."
I wrote the ballot arguments against Prop 58, pointing out that the measure was full of huge loopholes and wouldn't work. I was right. It didn't. All we got was a $15 billion bill, plus 30 years' interest.
Today the same cabal of editors, politicians and special interest groups that backed Props 57-58 now back Props 1A-1C. They were dead wrong then, and they are just as wrong now.